South Africa - The Springboks
The might of the Springboks head to France with what is one of the strongest teams in the rainbow nations history. Like all nations bar the All Blacks, they do not head to this Rugby World Cup with a impressive recent record, but they do boast the most abrasive pack in world rugby - and a team littered with class.
Their strong year, was highlighted by their most significant Super 14; in which they provided the two finalists, with the Bulls emerging first time South African champions. Controversy and boardroom brawling was created by Jake Whites decision to rest his first choice players for the away legs of the Tri Nations, yet over 2005 and 2006 they were the only team to beat the All Blacks in this period.
Since Rugby World Cup 2003...
South Africa suffered a early exit at the last World Cup, meeting a All Blacks team that reserved their best performance in that tournament for their old foes. Solid years followed in 2004 and 2005, although these periods still earn't the Boks some criticism, more for their one dimensional play. Consistent losses to New Zealand, France, Ireland and Australia were more often than not due to better tactics by their opposition teams. Indeed, all four of these nations hold at least a 50/50 ledger against the Boks.
2006 was a horror year for South Africa. While they were able to record a narrow 21-20 victory over the All Blacks, they suffered seven losses, including a 49-0 mauling at the hands of the Wallabies. Jake White endured much criticism especially from his own country in this period, again for his gameplans, and also his selections. The Springbok captain John Smit was also under immense pressure, and South Africa were not sitting pretty less than 12 months from the games showpiece in France.
Enter 2007, where despite 3 losses, the Springboks head to France with a very strong team and seem to have discovered the brutal forward orientated defensive gameplan that suits them so well. However, with their backline (off the cuff of their Super 14 teams) adding much needed sting to their strong set piece platform - and former Wallaby coach Eddie Jones headed to France in South African colours, they are set to launch a strong assault on RWC 2007.
Strengths
The Boks most dominant weapon over the past few years has been their physicality. A brutal approach to the game which is best exampled in their All Black encounters, where the natural flowing finesse style game of New Zealand has been upset by the in your face approach.
This has been complimented by a strong pack - with the big Springbok forwards able on their day to match it with any other eight in world rugby. This has always been matched with a solid scrummaging unit - and probably their strongest forward weapon, the lineout. Victor Matfield is widely acknowledged as the worlds premier "lineout forward". With his ability to marshal his pods so quickly gives the Boks attacking advantage every lineout.
Defensively the Boks have always been strong. But they traditionally employ a classic style rush defence. When on song this unique defensive structure can cause massive problems to the opposing teams, especially at half back and first reciever. While ill discipline with the brutality of this approach has caused problems, this in itself is a advantage as the opposition attack can doubt itself when able to be shut down so aggressively.
While traditionalists of the forward style power game, their back line cannot be discounted. Their three quarter line is the match of any in world rugby. Bryan Habana remains the greatest attacking wing going around, and would be a automatic selection in most world XV's. At his most dangerous, he is a single element which teams will plan against - and at he remains the best pass interceptor in the world. The ageless Percy Montgomery has re-emerged in 2007, and his positional play and excellent boot will be vital in the Springboks chances later this year.
Central to their back line link to their powerful forward pack is half back, the position in which lies realistically South Africa greatest depth. Fourie du preez is one of the most complete half backs in the world, and the emergence of the young Ruan Pienaar adds more depth to this vital position. Forward dominance counts for little without quick service from the base of a scrum or ruck, and this will be a strong asset for the Boks.
Weaknesses
Their great weakness has ironically been connected with their great strength. A team often labelled one dimensional, match their physicality or pass/kick behind their defense would be the first mantras uttered my most opposition coaches.
Their lineout is their only non-weakness in the forwards - but the Boks have been outscrummaged by even the maligned Wallaby pack. There is often to much insistence on sheer size, which has shown in recent matches to be a weakness, as more mobile and fitter forward packs have lasted the full 80 minutes.
Jake White also insists that a specialist "fetcher" at number 7 is not required and often ignores the South Africans best specialist flankers, namely Luke Watson. This has also caused consternation in their most recent losses, with specialists such as McCaw, Smith and Nyanga creating great problems in the loose. The ruck area is such a crucial one in the modern game, and winning or forcing rucks are not all about brute force.
The most glaring weakness when compared with all major playing nations at the world cup is at the most crucial, first five or flyhalf. Carter, Larkham, O'Gara, Jones, Michelak, Contemponi and Wilkinson - all of South Africas major competitors have class number 10's with games suited to this pivot position.
Take nothing away from Butch James, Andre Pretorius or Derek Hougaard. But none of them possess the all round game neccessary of a world class first reciever. Their first choice seems to be Butch James, but while brutal in defence, he possesses neither the finesse or the kicking game should it be required. Same with Andre or Derek, whom do possesse some panache with those catagories, but are not the backline generals that their international contemparies are.
This will be a considerable problem, if crunch games encounter fickle european weather. Especially when a traditionalist style forward game or "ten man rugby" requires a solid flyhalf. Such games are often won by the best kicking team, and only by bringing their best full back Monty into the kicking role could this be countered.
While South Africa also has solid depth as evidenced by the Super 14, this year has shown that even strong South Africa "B teams" do not possess anywhere near the same class as a full strength SpringBok XV. Matfield, Burger, Smit, Habana and Montgomery must be playing if the Africans are to win this world cup.
By James Mortimer
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
World Cup Preview - Australia
Australia - The Wallabies
Australia. Ever a World Cup specialist team if there was one, the two time World Cup Champions have an impressive record at Rugby World Cups claiming the championship in 91 and 99, and then narrowly losing to the favourites England in the Final.
Like 2003, the Wallabies head to the World Cup with hardly the most impressive record in the last four years, but after beating World Cup favourites the All Blacks in Melbourne - they know that like always they have enough in their arsenal to beat any team in the world.
Since Rugby World Cup 2003...
Realistically no one expected the Wallabies to be the force they eventually proved to be in 2003, but after stumbling to a narrow victory over a willing Scotland, they shocked the Rugby World with a sensational 22-10 upset of the All Blacks, and then pushed England all the way in the Final before the Famous Wilkinson drop goal secured English victory deep into extra time.
But after a solid 2004, 2005 was disastrous for the Wallabies, recording eight consecutive losses which eventually was the catalyst for Eddie Jones being replaced as Australian Coach. John "knuckles" Connelly succeeded him, but even he couldn't prevent five losses in 2006 - including a shock loss by the Welsh club side Ospreys against "Australia A (containing eight first choice wallabies)". He also couldn't arrest Australia's very poor away record with the Wallabies being a very different team away from home, with only five wins against Tier One Nations over this period and fourteen losses. The Wallabies have not defeated New Zealand, South Africa or France in their own backyards for over six years.
Twenty-six wins, eighteen losses and a draw is hardly an impeccable record over a four year period, but the Wallabies remain a team capable of matching it with any team and know that they have the mental capacity to compete at and win the World Cup.
Strengths
The Wallabies are regarded by many as the most intelligent team in world rugby, and have proven consistently that weakness on paper can be hidden on the field.
They possess a very strong back line, and in their illustrious pivots, George Gregan and Stephan Larkham, contain the only team in history to field two active 100+ test veterans. This experience will serve the Wallabies very well in this World Cup. Larkham is up there with the world's best first five eighths. The World Record test cap holder Gregan has had an up and down last four years, with many at one stage believing he had run his course. But a strong 2007 has him as Australia's first choice scrum half, and his tenaciousness is admired and loathed by opponents, fans, and referees alike.
The Wallabies' relationship with their rugby league counterparts has paid them rich dividends for nearly a decade now, with an excellent defensive structure which has probably won them more games than their attack. This corresponds with a strong back row, which is probably Australia's greatest area in regard to player depth. Any team that can afford to have either George Smith or Phil Waugh on the bench is a strong one.
Their line also remains one of their greatest weapons, following on from the John Eales era of lineout brilliance. They consistently compete at opposition ball, and Knuckles is a firm believer in the philosophy of having tall back rowers which add to the lineout options.
The Wallabies' greatest strength is probably to come back from adversity or being written off. They remain the All Blacks' nemesis, being the only team to seem to be able to put the spooks in to the New Zealanders' physche. In 2003 they should have been well beaten by vastly superior (on paper...) New Zealand and English outfits, only to push both vaunted teams to the limits. This ability to grow an extra leg will be what keeps the Wallabies in most punter's books.
Weaknesses
Eddie Jones' Wallabies were advocates of a structured pattern style of play, relying on fast phase ball re-cycling and elaborate set moves. But when England's monstrous pack famously destroyed the Australian scrum in 2005, a glaring weakness - known for a while but never really exposed - became apparent and caused great concern in the Australian rugby fraternity.
John Connelly has made great effort to try to add more forward oriented dimensions to this team. When they were winning this was lauded. But with no small irony, when the Wallabies were beaten, some critics labelled Knuckles' focus on the pack to detract from what has always been the Wallabies' historical strength, their backline attack.
There is no doubt improvements have been made, both in proper technique, but also in allowing the Wallabies to ensure any forward weaknesses are not capitalised by opposition. But even most Australians will admit that a firing All Black, English or French pack can and will cause great problems for this Wallaby team.
Australia's starting fifteen will be the match of any team come World Cup, but injuries to key positions will threaten to derail the campaign. They do not have the depth of New Zealand, South Africa, or even France or England. Injuries to any one of their key axis of 9, 10, 12 and 13 will cause many problems for Australia, for without Gregan, Larkham, Giteau or Mortlock the Wallabies are not nearly as formidable.
Their other historical weakness is their lack of true killer instinct in regard to weaker teams. From all the way back to the infamous Tongan victory 30 years ago, the Wallabies have not beaten teams which quite simply they should have.
Recent end of year Northern Hemisphere tours have been the best (or worst!) examples of this, with the Wallabies unable to record victories over Irish, Scottish and Welsh teams - and even struggling to put away a valiant Italian team.
Finally, while the Wallabies are well known for attacking a team at its most obvious weaknesses, they themselves are not the team they used to be when under pressure. The Wallabies have not won their close games like they did under Eales for many years now, and this recent trend must be prevented to give them any chance of winning the cup.
The X-factor
The Australian spirit and mindset will be their most potent weapon at this World Cup. A never say die approach and a seeming ability to talk themselves into victory will again be prominent at this year's tournament.
Even the 2003 English and the 2007 All Blacks were not and are not adament that they would and could win the World Cups. But the Wallabies head to every World Cup with the firm belief that they can win. They have a mental strength comparable to the near invincible Australian Cricket Team, and history's greatest games are not always won by the strongest teams but by those with the strongest mindsets.
Gregan and Larkham will be hoping for strong international rugby swansongs, but then every World Cup bids farewell to rugby greats.
But Australian Rugby has in many people's eyes dropped the proverbial ball since magnificent 2003 - and this year has again had negatives, with poor showings from Australian Super 14 teams, fluctuations of form from their greatest players (including the awful pre-season injury to the talismanic Chris Latham) and reported ARU boardroom and coaching tensions. But this will only serve to inspire the Wallabies more, and with a new era approaching in Australian rugby with the re-appointment of John O'Neill and the advent of the first true Australian Provincial Championship - this team will be gunning to provide the greatest impetus of all.
By Jimmy Mortimer
Australia. Ever a World Cup specialist team if there was one, the two time World Cup Champions have an impressive record at Rugby World Cups claiming the championship in 91 and 99, and then narrowly losing to the favourites England in the Final.
Like 2003, the Wallabies head to the World Cup with hardly the most impressive record in the last four years, but after beating World Cup favourites the All Blacks in Melbourne - they know that like always they have enough in their arsenal to beat any team in the world.
Since Rugby World Cup 2003...
Realistically no one expected the Wallabies to be the force they eventually proved to be in 2003, but after stumbling to a narrow victory over a willing Scotland, they shocked the Rugby World with a sensational 22-10 upset of the All Blacks, and then pushed England all the way in the Final before the Famous Wilkinson drop goal secured English victory deep into extra time.
But after a solid 2004, 2005 was disastrous for the Wallabies, recording eight consecutive losses which eventually was the catalyst for Eddie Jones being replaced as Australian Coach. John "knuckles" Connelly succeeded him, but even he couldn't prevent five losses in 2006 - including a shock loss by the Welsh club side Ospreys against "Australia A (containing eight first choice wallabies)". He also couldn't arrest Australia's very poor away record with the Wallabies being a very different team away from home, with only five wins against Tier One Nations over this period and fourteen losses. The Wallabies have not defeated New Zealand, South Africa or France in their own backyards for over six years.
Twenty-six wins, eighteen losses and a draw is hardly an impeccable record over a four year period, but the Wallabies remain a team capable of matching it with any team and know that they have the mental capacity to compete at and win the World Cup.
Strengths
The Wallabies are regarded by many as the most intelligent team in world rugby, and have proven consistently that weakness on paper can be hidden on the field.
They possess a very strong back line, and in their illustrious pivots, George Gregan and Stephan Larkham, contain the only team in history to field two active 100+ test veterans. This experience will serve the Wallabies very well in this World Cup. Larkham is up there with the world's best first five eighths. The World Record test cap holder Gregan has had an up and down last four years, with many at one stage believing he had run his course. But a strong 2007 has him as Australia's first choice scrum half, and his tenaciousness is admired and loathed by opponents, fans, and referees alike.
The Wallabies' relationship with their rugby league counterparts has paid them rich dividends for nearly a decade now, with an excellent defensive structure which has probably won them more games than their attack. This corresponds with a strong back row, which is probably Australia's greatest area in regard to player depth. Any team that can afford to have either George Smith or Phil Waugh on the bench is a strong one.
Their line also remains one of their greatest weapons, following on from the John Eales era of lineout brilliance. They consistently compete at opposition ball, and Knuckles is a firm believer in the philosophy of having tall back rowers which add to the lineout options.
The Wallabies' greatest strength is probably to come back from adversity or being written off. They remain the All Blacks' nemesis, being the only team to seem to be able to put the spooks in to the New Zealanders' physche. In 2003 they should have been well beaten by vastly superior (on paper...) New Zealand and English outfits, only to push both vaunted teams to the limits. This ability to grow an extra leg will be what keeps the Wallabies in most punter's books.
Weaknesses
Eddie Jones' Wallabies were advocates of a structured pattern style of play, relying on fast phase ball re-cycling and elaborate set moves. But when England's monstrous pack famously destroyed the Australian scrum in 2005, a glaring weakness - known for a while but never really exposed - became apparent and caused great concern in the Australian rugby fraternity.
John Connelly has made great effort to try to add more forward oriented dimensions to this team. When they were winning this was lauded. But with no small irony, when the Wallabies were beaten, some critics labelled Knuckles' focus on the pack to detract from what has always been the Wallabies' historical strength, their backline attack.
There is no doubt improvements have been made, both in proper technique, but also in allowing the Wallabies to ensure any forward weaknesses are not capitalised by opposition. But even most Australians will admit that a firing All Black, English or French pack can and will cause great problems for this Wallaby team.
Australia's starting fifteen will be the match of any team come World Cup, but injuries to key positions will threaten to derail the campaign. They do not have the depth of New Zealand, South Africa, or even France or England. Injuries to any one of their key axis of 9, 10, 12 and 13 will cause many problems for Australia, for without Gregan, Larkham, Giteau or Mortlock the Wallabies are not nearly as formidable.
Their other historical weakness is their lack of true killer instinct in regard to weaker teams. From all the way back to the infamous Tongan victory 30 years ago, the Wallabies have not beaten teams which quite simply they should have.
Recent end of year Northern Hemisphere tours have been the best (or worst!) examples of this, with the Wallabies unable to record victories over Irish, Scottish and Welsh teams - and even struggling to put away a valiant Italian team.
Finally, while the Wallabies are well known for attacking a team at its most obvious weaknesses, they themselves are not the team they used to be when under pressure. The Wallabies have not won their close games like they did under Eales for many years now, and this recent trend must be prevented to give them any chance of winning the cup.
The X-factor
The Australian spirit and mindset will be their most potent weapon at this World Cup. A never say die approach and a seeming ability to talk themselves into victory will again be prominent at this year's tournament.
Even the 2003 English and the 2007 All Blacks were not and are not adament that they would and could win the World Cups. But the Wallabies head to every World Cup with the firm belief that they can win. They have a mental strength comparable to the near invincible Australian Cricket Team, and history's greatest games are not always won by the strongest teams but by those with the strongest mindsets.
Gregan and Larkham will be hoping for strong international rugby swansongs, but then every World Cup bids farewell to rugby greats.
But Australian Rugby has in many people's eyes dropped the proverbial ball since magnificent 2003 - and this year has again had negatives, with poor showings from Australian Super 14 teams, fluctuations of form from their greatest players (including the awful pre-season injury to the talismanic Chris Latham) and reported ARU boardroom and coaching tensions. But this will only serve to inspire the Wallabies more, and with a new era approaching in Australian rugby with the re-appointment of John O'Neill and the advent of the first true Australian Provincial Championship - this team will be gunning to provide the greatest impetus of all.
By Jimmy Mortimer
Friday, July 27, 2007
World Cup Preview - New Zealand
New Zealand - The All Blacks
The world's number one team heads to the 2007 Rugby World Cup again as favourites. As many are saying, with their "invincibility" tag diminished and, if Bob Dwyer and other soothsayers prescribe, their aura and strengths diminishing.
However, unlike other World Cups, the All Blacks head to France with an imposing record and coach Graham Henry has done everything possible to ensure that since the last world cup they are as well prepared as possible.
Since Rugby World Cup 2003...
The All Blacks sensationally dumped coach John Mitchell after they were defeated by Eddie Jones' Wallabies in the 2003 semi final. Chokers again? Not really, as the Wallabies produced arguably their greatest performance and the All Blacks appeared rudderless when put under pressure, and the selection of Leon Macdonald in the the 13 position was a tactical disaster.
In the last four years the All Blacks have lost only 5 matches and won 38 (an 88% winning record). No team in history has compiled such a magnificent record, and only Martin Johnson's and Clive Woodward's 2003 England had a comparable record over a 3+ year period.
In this time the All Blacks have only lost to two teams, the Springboks and the Wallabies, and even against the latter were unbeaten in 2005 and 2006.
They inflicted the heaviest defeat ever on the fabled British & Irish Lions with an impressive 3-0 whitewash, completed a rare home unions Grand Slam, have not relinquished the Bledisloe Cup in this period, and with their recent Tri-nations victory, won the southern hemisphere's premier trophy for the third year in a row, and eighth overall (after 12 years of competition).
They have also conquered Europe - marching through the Northern Hemisphere to remain unbeaten against all of their nations with their last defeat coming at the hands of World Champions elect England in early 2003. They have in this time inflicted on England and France their heaviest home defeats in history (twice to France), with their performance in late 2005 against Les Bleus labelled by many purists as the most complete rugby football massacre of all time.
Strange that no mention of the fact that this year's host France, have had their three worst defeats in history inflicted upon them by this All Blacks team in the last three years, twice in their own backyard.
As their resume has become all the more impressive, so has expectation, both at home and worldwide. In 2007 the All Blacks have been labelled as a declining force, yet to hit their straps. Two heavy defeats against a depleted French outfit seemed to impress no one, and the All Blacks most recent nemesis, the Wallabies, seemed to, out of nowhere, come from behind to stun the world's best team 20-15 in Melbourne. Closing wins against a weakened Springbok team, and a solid shut out of the Wallabies in Auckland have silenced some critics, but not all....
Strengths
Their most obvious is their depth. New Zealand with their sound domestic structure has always had great talent, but Graham Henry has been possessed in his quest to ensure that there are at least two international class players in every position. This was spectacularly evidenced in their Grand Slam tour, where Henry rotated his entire starting fifteeen against Ireland after beating Wales, and the team looked no weaker for it.
They possess probably the strongest pack in world rugby - and are realistically the world's best scrummaging team. They have great pride in their ability in this set piece, and have their greatest depth in their forwards.
The All Blacks also field the best loose forward trio of all the world teams, with the 6,7,8 combination of Collins, McCaw and So'oialo being thereabouts the best in their respective positions in the planet. Their nous at the breakdown has been one of the keys to their dominance over these recent years, and this has led to them being an impressive defensive side, and a lethal counterattacking team. However, this innovation over the last few years has been duly noted by other world teams, and contestation at the ruck is very strong globally.
While some are casting doubts over the All Blacks recent form and others mutter the word "chokers" - the reality is that the All Blacks most dominant strength is the recent record they bring to the 2007 Cup. Diminishing or not, they have been the world's dominant team in a way that no other team has been before them, and bring with them a winning culture.
Weaknesses
Mindset. If the All Blacks remind themselves of their "failures" of 99 and 03 they will create doubt that is not needed. Never mind that Les Bleus and the Wallabies played their greatest games of all time to beat New Zealand in these Cups, the All Blacks carry a century old history of expectation and quite simply, their public expects them to win.
The word chokers will be muttered, nay yelled, by all the opposition teams, as they know that they have a greater chance of beating the All Blacks mentally than on the park. Graham Henry and his men have ensured that these mistakes will not be repeated, and reflecting on them will be at their own peril.
Tana Umaga's retirement from international rugby probably hurt the All Blacks more than they care to admit. While players such as Nonu, Smith, Muliana and Toeava have done sufficient jobs as custodians of the 13 jumper - the abundant strength of all other positions of the team has probably glossed over the hole which has only emerged in their most recent defeat in Melbourne as an obvious one. It was Christian Cullen's and Leon Macdonald's (both first choice fullbacks) selections in these positions in the 99 and 03 Cup that was probably as much a reason for defeat as anything else - and this defensive channel will again be targeted in France.
Luke McAlister's emergence as an international level second five-eighth - while a benefit of New Zealand's depth, has created a problem with itself, with a selection dilemma between himself and Aaron Mauger. They both possess different styles of play, and as the above mentioned problematic 13 position requires strength and guidance from the 12 jersey, this could cause another potential weakness in the All Blacks' armoury.
For all of their strength in the set piece, the All Blacks' most glaring weakness is once again their lineout. Over the last decade despite world class locks and hookers, the New Zealand line out seems to periodically suffer and remains one of the only top ranked nations not to consistently compete against opposition throws. While it is not realistically a weakness that loses them games, it is an area that can and will be targeted.
Their greatest strength though has probably been ironically their greatest recent weakness, as being the world's best team over such a long period has meant that their competitors have watched them closely and the gap is not as wide as it was in 2005 and 2006. With their blitzrieg style of play and impressive forward dominance other nations have learnt and like any other sporting code, the better the team - or player(s) - at the top of the hill, the better the chasing pack will inevitably become.
The X factor
Graham Henry and others have spoken often of not repeating the mistakes of previous World Cups and in 2003 the All Blacks were brilliant in notching up 50 points against both the Springboks and the Wallabies in their backyards. Yet in the return games in New Zealand, the margins were traditionally tight. Many said that the All Blacks showed all of their Aces before the World Cup even started, and this was sensationally proven by Eddie Jones.
Has this lesson been learned? Have the 2007 All Blacks planned one of rugby history's great feints and been underplaying their hand to roll out artillery that the rugby world will be shocked by come October 20. Time will tell.
The other X factor is the world's premier openside flanker, the All Blacks captain Richie McCaw. He has been instrumental in his team's success, and while other nations bemoan his "cheating", the reality is that it seems their claims are the only way other teams can beat him. Two crucial points. What happens if he is injured. Even Dan Carter can in theory afford to be injured as they have Nick Evans, a world class 10 in their squad. But there is no one (maybe bar Marty Holah, not in the squad or selector's frame) to replace their mecurial captain. But the other is his captaincy. He leads from the front, no doubt - but he does not seem the inspirational captain that Tana Umaga was, and is not yet an international captain (excluding his magnificent win-loss record) mentioned in the same breath as Johnson, Eales, Piennar and others. Can he inspire his team to win if they are 10 points behind with 10 minutes to go in a World Cup Semi-final? This remains to be seen.
The reality is if the All Blacks play to potential, execute a game plan with a contingency, don't defeat themselves in their heads, and don't select a full back or prop in the outside centre position, they should win this 2007 World Cup.
Jimmy Mortimer
The world's number one team heads to the 2007 Rugby World Cup again as favourites. As many are saying, with their "invincibility" tag diminished and, if Bob Dwyer and other soothsayers prescribe, their aura and strengths diminishing.
However, unlike other World Cups, the All Blacks head to France with an imposing record and coach Graham Henry has done everything possible to ensure that since the last world cup they are as well prepared as possible.
Since Rugby World Cup 2003...
The All Blacks sensationally dumped coach John Mitchell after they were defeated by Eddie Jones' Wallabies in the 2003 semi final. Chokers again? Not really, as the Wallabies produced arguably their greatest performance and the All Blacks appeared rudderless when put under pressure, and the selection of Leon Macdonald in the the 13 position was a tactical disaster.
In the last four years the All Blacks have lost only 5 matches and won 38 (an 88% winning record). No team in history has compiled such a magnificent record, and only Martin Johnson's and Clive Woodward's 2003 England had a comparable record over a 3+ year period.
In this time the All Blacks have only lost to two teams, the Springboks and the Wallabies, and even against the latter were unbeaten in 2005 and 2006.
They inflicted the heaviest defeat ever on the fabled British & Irish Lions with an impressive 3-0 whitewash, completed a rare home unions Grand Slam, have not relinquished the Bledisloe Cup in this period, and with their recent Tri-nations victory, won the southern hemisphere's premier trophy for the third year in a row, and eighth overall (after 12 years of competition).
They have also conquered Europe - marching through the Northern Hemisphere to remain unbeaten against all of their nations with their last defeat coming at the hands of World Champions elect England in early 2003. They have in this time inflicted on England and France their heaviest home defeats in history (twice to France), with their performance in late 2005 against Les Bleus labelled by many purists as the most complete rugby football massacre of all time.
Strange that no mention of the fact that this year's host France, have had their three worst defeats in history inflicted upon them by this All Blacks team in the last three years, twice in their own backyard.
As their resume has become all the more impressive, so has expectation, both at home and worldwide. In 2007 the All Blacks have been labelled as a declining force, yet to hit their straps. Two heavy defeats against a depleted French outfit seemed to impress no one, and the All Blacks most recent nemesis, the Wallabies, seemed to, out of nowhere, come from behind to stun the world's best team 20-15 in Melbourne. Closing wins against a weakened Springbok team, and a solid shut out of the Wallabies in Auckland have silenced some critics, but not all....
Strengths
Their most obvious is their depth. New Zealand with their sound domestic structure has always had great talent, but Graham Henry has been possessed in his quest to ensure that there are at least two international class players in every position. This was spectacularly evidenced in their Grand Slam tour, where Henry rotated his entire starting fifteeen against Ireland after beating Wales, and the team looked no weaker for it.
This strength also corresponds to their bench, giving them tremendous strike power with no position being weakened when substituted.
This All Blacks team also has multiple gameplans, something not seen in the past, with the ability to run opposition ragged with a gifted back division, yet able also to grind teams down through the forwards or through the kicking of their gifted number 10 Dan Carter. While his form has been arguably down this year, he is still probably the world premier flyhalf - a position crucial to a team winning the William Webb Ellis Cup.They possess probably the strongest pack in world rugby - and are realistically the world's best scrummaging team. They have great pride in their ability in this set piece, and have their greatest depth in their forwards.
The All Blacks also field the best loose forward trio of all the world teams, with the 6,7,8 combination of Collins, McCaw and So'oialo being thereabouts the best in their respective positions in the planet. Their nous at the breakdown has been one of the keys to their dominance over these recent years, and this has led to them being an impressive defensive side, and a lethal counterattacking team. However, this innovation over the last few years has been duly noted by other world teams, and contestation at the ruck is very strong globally.
While some are casting doubts over the All Blacks recent form and others mutter the word "chokers" - the reality is that the All Blacks most dominant strength is the recent record they bring to the 2007 Cup. Diminishing or not, they have been the world's dominant team in a way that no other team has been before them, and bring with them a winning culture.
Weaknesses
Mindset. If the All Blacks remind themselves of their "failures" of 99 and 03 they will create doubt that is not needed. Never mind that Les Bleus and the Wallabies played their greatest games of all time to beat New Zealand in these Cups, the All Blacks carry a century old history of expectation and quite simply, their public expects them to win.
The word chokers will be muttered, nay yelled, by all the opposition teams, as they know that they have a greater chance of beating the All Blacks mentally than on the park. Graham Henry and his men have ensured that these mistakes will not be repeated, and reflecting on them will be at their own peril.
Tana Umaga's retirement from international rugby probably hurt the All Blacks more than they care to admit. While players such as Nonu, Smith, Muliana and Toeava have done sufficient jobs as custodians of the 13 jumper - the abundant strength of all other positions of the team has probably glossed over the hole which has only emerged in their most recent defeat in Melbourne as an obvious one. It was Christian Cullen's and Leon Macdonald's (both first choice fullbacks) selections in these positions in the 99 and 03 Cup that was probably as much a reason for defeat as anything else - and this defensive channel will again be targeted in France.
Luke McAlister's emergence as an international level second five-eighth - while a benefit of New Zealand's depth, has created a problem with itself, with a selection dilemma between himself and Aaron Mauger. They both possess different styles of play, and as the above mentioned problematic 13 position requires strength and guidance from the 12 jersey, this could cause another potential weakness in the All Blacks' armoury.
For all of their strength in the set piece, the All Blacks' most glaring weakness is once again their lineout. Over the last decade despite world class locks and hookers, the New Zealand line out seems to periodically suffer and remains one of the only top ranked nations not to consistently compete against opposition throws. While it is not realistically a weakness that loses them games, it is an area that can and will be targeted.
Their greatest strength though has probably been ironically their greatest recent weakness, as being the world's best team over such a long period has meant that their competitors have watched them closely and the gap is not as wide as it was in 2005 and 2006. With their blitzrieg style of play and impressive forward dominance other nations have learnt and like any other sporting code, the better the team - or player(s) - at the top of the hill, the better the chasing pack will inevitably become.
The X factor
Graham Henry and others have spoken often of not repeating the mistakes of previous World Cups and in 2003 the All Blacks were brilliant in notching up 50 points against both the Springboks and the Wallabies in their backyards. Yet in the return games in New Zealand, the margins were traditionally tight. Many said that the All Blacks showed all of their Aces before the World Cup even started, and this was sensationally proven by Eddie Jones.
Has this lesson been learned? Have the 2007 All Blacks planned one of rugby history's great feints and been underplaying their hand to roll out artillery that the rugby world will be shocked by come October 20. Time will tell.
The other X factor is the world's premier openside flanker, the All Blacks captain Richie McCaw. He has been instrumental in his team's success, and while other nations bemoan his "cheating", the reality is that it seems their claims are the only way other teams can beat him. Two crucial points. What happens if he is injured. Even Dan Carter can in theory afford to be injured as they have Nick Evans, a world class 10 in their squad. But there is no one (maybe bar Marty Holah, not in the squad or selector's frame) to replace their mecurial captain. But the other is his captaincy. He leads from the front, no doubt - but he does not seem the inspirational captain that Tana Umaga was, and is not yet an international captain (excluding his magnificent win-loss record) mentioned in the same breath as Johnson, Eales, Piennar and others. Can he inspire his team to win if they are 10 points behind with 10 minutes to go in a World Cup Semi-final? This remains to be seen.
The reality is if the All Blacks play to potential, execute a game plan with a contingency, don't defeat themselves in their heads, and don't select a full back or prop in the outside centre position, they should win this 2007 World Cup.
Jimmy Mortimer
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
